Bitcoin May Hit $144,000 As Fidelity Analyst’s Altered Supply Pattern Suggests
Analyst Offers New Way to Predict Bitcoin’s Movement by Adjusting Old Stock-Flow Model
Global Macro Director at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer shared his take on the famous stock-to-flow model widely used by investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. The metric is one of the most commonly used tools to determine the next high or low. But Timmer has his own opinion on this and suggested a better way to approach stock and adoption data.
Rarity as a price factor
The analyst’s main issue with the current S2F model was that rarity alone cannot determine price. Scarcity alone cannot be used to increase the value of an asset if it is not adopted, used, or has any other use.
The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022
For this reason, Timmer has constructed an S-curve model that mimics the mobile phone adoption curve. This should help determine Bitcoin’s future adoption rate and overall network growth.
Timmer also added that the model’s accurate prediction of Bitcoin’s meteoric growth might have been accurate due to the cryptocurrency’s massive adoption rates, and he doubts the model works now, when gold’s capitalization digital has reached almost 600 billion dollars.
Timmer considered the supply limitations that currently exist on Bitcoin and added them to the chart. The supply projection will help determine the exact growth and pace of Bitcoin adoption.
According to three different models, Bitcoin will most likely hit $63,000. In the best possible scenario, we will see Bitcoin rise to $144,000. In this case, Bitcoin’s movement will be almost an exact copy of the mobile phone’s S-curve demand pattern.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $30,345, losing more than half of its value since hitting its November high.